How Well Can You Predict The Future?

Fortune TellerIt’s been a very tough quarter for economic forecasters, quota-carrying sales teams and CEOs.  The sudden downturn even caught GE’s legendary planners by surprise.  If you’re an executive at a technology company, you may already have started an FY09 planning process to re-examine staffing, product investments and revenue.  These already bake in your core business assumptions, though, so you should “stress test” your assumptions using scenario planning. Continue reading

Understanding the Opportunities of Buy-Side Economics

As CEOs of our products, we product managers have a lot to do.  Traditionally, this has included “build-versus-buy” decisions. The debate often hinged on whether technical tasks were “core” or just “context”.  Over the last decade, this has shifted from “build-versus-buy” to “buy-versus-buy” as we balance more kinds of internal and external resources.  Here are some thoughts on sizing various “buying” opportunities to keep products shipping and revenue flowing. Continue reading

Open Source: Tree Museums

SUV among the Redwoods2005 was a great year for open source developers and solutions, with a dramatic boost in credibility, tools and respect.  As part of this, there are an increasing number of companies commercializing open source: adding value through installers, packaging, coordinated releases, technical support, management utilities and formal product planning.

This has the feeling, though, of domesticating the wild spirit of open source and turning it into another IPO-driven, VC-backed, competitively focused economic model.  I’m reminded of Joni Mitchell’s verse from “Big Yellow Taxi”:

“They took all the trees
And put them in a tree museum
And they charge the people
A dollar and a half just to see ‘em” Continue reading

Sharks, Pilot Fish, and the Product Food Chain

Swimming with the Big Boys!When you’re launching a new venture, one of your hungry competitor earliest considerations is how your innovation might fit into the existing technical environment: should it replace some dominant species or improve the overall market climate? In ecological terms, is your new company going to produce fish food or fight the largest carnivores for survival? And how should that decision shape the company you create? Continue reading